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Dec 13, 2012
12/12
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we've asked in the survey how serious a problem is the fiscal cliff? and you get 68% of the people saying it's a very serious problem, which tells you something when you're talking about something abstract like tax and budget politics which people don't ordinarily pay attention to. they've gotten it. but what we're seeing in this poll, joe, is the after glow of the election. typically when presidents get re-elected, the partisan fighting stops. their numbers rise. the president's approval rating 53%. when you ask, who do you trust to handle the fiscal cliff, it shows how the president has the upper hand. 38% say they trust president obama. that's twice as many as trust speaker boehner, although the 38%, of course, is under 50%. >> 38%. oh, man. but when you look at the potential solutions, does obama have a mandate? we asked that question. you see very big numbers, 68% says he has a mandate to cut taxes for people who earn less than 250k. 65% say he has a mandate to raise taxes on the wealthy while cutting spending. both elements are important. and whe
we've asked in the survey how serious a problem is the fiscal cliff? and you get 68% of the people saying it's a very serious problem, which tells you something when you're talking about something abstract like tax and budget politics which people don't ordinarily pay attention to. they've gotten it. but what we're seeing in this poll, joe, is the after glow of the election. typically when presidents get re-elected, the partisan fighting stops. their numbers rise. the president's approval...
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Dec 12, 2012
12/12
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bernanke, if i could follow up on your last response there, given on the fiscal cliff, it s it possible if policy makers didn't agree to a deficit deal by the end of the year and we were to two over the fiscal cliff that size of the asset purchase could indeed grow in response to that. and more specifically the coined the phrase fiscal cliff. and i want to get your take on whether you feel it is still the most appropriate language to describe what will happen at the againing of the year. some are some americans alarmed by the term. do you feel it is appropriate with the fiscal contraction that would come if there is no deal? >> well, the first part of your question is, it is the economy went off the fiscal cliff, our assessment, cvo, all think there are adverse effects on the economy and unemployment rate. so on the margin we would try to do what we could. perhaps increase a bit. but again, i i want to be clear that we cannot offset the full impact. it is too big given tools and limitations on policy tool kit at this point. on terms of the terminology, well, and people have different pr
bernanke, if i could follow up on your last response there, given on the fiscal cliff, it s it possible if policy makers didn't agree to a deficit deal by the end of the year and we were to two over the fiscal cliff that size of the asset purchase could indeed grow in response to that. and more specifically the coined the phrase fiscal cliff. and i want to get your take on whether you feel it is still the most appropriate language to describe what will happen at the againing of the year. some...
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Dec 12, 2012
12/12
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>> the fiscal cliff is something he will talk about, say they have to solve this. he's talked before about the upside and said twice already the federal reserve cannot off-set the effects of the fiscal cliff. the fed could -- one idea -- the fed could keep a little bit of powder dry if we do go off the cliff, the fed has something it could do. >> mike duke last night the ceo of walmart spoke and he sa said -- they poll their shoppers all the time. a week before the election, 25% of walmart customers knew about the fiscal cliff. one week after the election, 75% of their shoppers know about the fiscal cliff and 15% say it means they will spend less on christmas. it's pre-telling, right? >> apparently the walmart shopper is more informed than the average american. we showed 70%. that's out there. it's something that affects people. it was clear in the data there was an effect of the fiscal cliff on overall economic attitudes. the more important thing we found is that it affects businesses and businesses slow down in capital spending. you're an economic student and you
>> the fiscal cliff is something he will talk about, say they have to solve this. he's talked before about the upside and said twice already the federal reserve cannot off-set the effects of the fiscal cliff. the fed could -- one idea -- the fed could keep a little bit of powder dry if we do go off the cliff, the fed has something it could do. >> mike duke last night the ceo of walmart spoke and he sa said -- they poll their shoppers all the time. a week before the election, 25% of...
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Dec 11, 2012
12/12
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frankly the fiscal cliff, josh and i have talked about this, wouldn't cause me to do anything. i don't run my fort folio purely for tax consequences. if something's near your price target and you're a holder, then you want to sell. but truth of the matter is is that it's not going to affect that many people. you're talking about what's not a huge increase in terms of the capital gains on a percentage basis. go from 20% to 25% is not that big of deal if you're looking for 30% upside in a name. >> there are people who are selling stocks based on an expected rise in the capital gains rate. >> it may be a huge mistake. >> why not sell and buy it back? >> because then you're pushing your taxes you're paying forward. those taxes that you're paying, you're losing use of that capital for compounding. that's why you don't do it. if you're in the upper, upper brackets maybe you want to consider it. >> let me push back on sprint. there was news david faber was talking about. this sprint/clearwire deal is closer. that doesn't change -- >> not at all. a distant third in a two horse race. i
frankly the fiscal cliff, josh and i have talked about this, wouldn't cause me to do anything. i don't run my fort folio purely for tax consequences. if something's near your price target and you're a holder, then you want to sell. but truth of the matter is is that it's not going to affect that many people. you're talking about what's not a huge increase in terms of the capital gains on a percentage basis. go from 20% to 25% is not that big of deal if you're looking for 30% upside in a name....
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Dec 11, 2012
12/12
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if we get through that, we got the debt ceiling -- man we can fix the fiscal cliff. we're going to hype -- i can't wait for the debt ceiling now. man is that going to be something, too. that's going to be our next thing. >> constant entertainment. >> oh, talk about it. >> you've got -- you think this is brinksmanship. when is the deadline? i can't wait. >> it's february, right? the beginning of february. >> what's the slogan for that? >> let me come up with that. >> negotiate up. >> we don't want this to end with the fiscal cliff. we got -- and it won't. anyway -- >> how about the s&p 500? >> coming up the hunt for yield at times of uncertainty. institutional investors looking for alternatives to the lower return on fixed income. we're going to talk to the north carolina treasurer and the co-founder of investment firm cambridge associated. >> over president barack obama's first term the federal debt to gdp ratio increased over 19%. it is projected to increase over 20% by the end of his second term. [ male announcer ] you are a business pro. monarch of marketing analy
if we get through that, we got the debt ceiling -- man we can fix the fiscal cliff. we're going to hype -- i can't wait for the debt ceiling now. man is that going to be something, too. that's going to be our next thing. >> constant entertainment. >> oh, talk about it. >> you've got -- you think this is brinksmanship. when is the deadline? i can't wait. >> it's february, right? the beginning of february. >> what's the slogan for that? >> let me come up with...
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Dec 11, 2012
12/12
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it may not entirely show itself in this fiscal cliff fix, but the fix may be coming. i'm kudlow. we'll be right back. try running four.ning a restaurant is hard, fortunately we've got ink. it gives us 5x the rewards on our internet, phone charges and cable, plus at office supply stores. rewards we put right back into our business. this is the only thing we've ever wanted to do and ink helps us do it. make your mark with ink from chase. >>> u.s. tax dollar funded battery marker a-123 systems is up for sale. the winning bid goes to -- china. so i asked was red china rising why u.s. taxpayers have to finance their battery companies. here's ann lee, author of "what the u.s. can learn from china," professor of nyu and visiting professor from beijing university and author kwof "death by china" and cnbc contributor. ann, let me go to you first. if we, the u.s. taxpayer and government are dumb enough to build a goofy battery company that goes bankrupt why shouldn't china scoop it up? >> i think this is a great story. first of all, taxpayer money wasn't wasted. all that money from the gov
it may not entirely show itself in this fiscal cliff fix, but the fix may be coming. i'm kudlow. we'll be right back. try running four.ning a restaurant is hard, fortunately we've got ink. it gives us 5x the rewards on our internet, phone charges and cable, plus at office supply stores. rewards we put right back into our business. this is the only thing we've ever wanted to do and ink helps us do it. make your mark with ink from chase. >>> u.s. tax dollar funded battery marker a-123...
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Dec 10, 2012
12/12
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it's china, i think the second largest customer of china, the u.s., avoiding the fiscal cliff, will be very good for them. you look at the build that it's had over the past three weeks, judge, it's up from roughly 35, pushing up towards 39 right now, that etf is, and i think if and when we do push this behind us, the fiscal cliff, that is, i think this one goes into the mid 40s. so i would buy fxi. >> let's debate these around the table a little bit. stephanie? i mean you're more positive i guess than negative on china. you like the fxi? >> we have been involved in it for awhile. we like a lot of the industrials. we like a lot of the mining stocks. >> have we talked about that one? >> maybe just a little bit. i do think you are definitely seeing some momentum pick up in china. and some of the nonbelievers are starting to become believers. and the data over the weekend was pretty compelling. other than the trade data and the export data, which i think people are expecting it to be a little bit soft given what's going on in the global world. but you look at retail sales and industrial pr
it's china, i think the second largest customer of china, the u.s., avoiding the fiscal cliff, will be very good for them. you look at the build that it's had over the past three weeks, judge, it's up from roughly 35, pushing up towards 39 right now, that etf is, and i think if and when we do push this behind us, the fiscal cliff, that is, i think this one goes into the mid 40s. so i would buy fxi. >> let's debate these around the table a little bit. stephanie? i mean you're more positive...
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Dec 10, 2012
12/12
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and now, of course, we're going to have the issues of the fiscal cliff. i would say for something like mcdonald's, though, it does historically trade with a staple and could benefit from consumer tradedown. i would be less concerned about it specifically for that company. but you are right, we do continue to see declining trends in cruise, and las vegas gambling, and other segments we do cover. >> specifically on the restaurants, it was raised by the journal over the weekend, is there a structural change now, having gone throthe recession about the willingness of people to pay for this sort of luxury? do you think that we've had a substantial change that could last for years? >> i think people have better options. they have anything from the salad bar at whole foods. they can trade up, they can trade down. they have very good options for eating at home. i think the problem is, that the pie isn't growing that much. you have about a half a point of population growth. and you have expansion in all types of food categories. that competes for people's dollars.
and now, of course, we're going to have the issues of the fiscal cliff. i would say for something like mcdonald's, though, it does historically trade with a staple and could benefit from consumer tradedown. i would be less concerned about it specifically for that company. but you are right, we do continue to see declining trends in cruise, and las vegas gambling, and other segments we do cover. >> specifically on the restaurants, it was raised by the journal over the weekend, is there a...
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Dec 10, 2012
12/12
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anyway, you would be hard pressed to find something who sdn have aen opinion on the fiscal cliff. this weekend, the ahead of the imf said the united states is more vulnerable to its domestic trouble more than anything else happening in the eurozone. christine lagarde says a balanced approach is needed and she says don't kick the can down the road, which is rich coming from a european. >>> european trading the lower this morning. italy's prime minister mario monti, yes, the same one that is famous from all the anti-trust things back in the -- was that the '90s? >> the '90s, yeah. >> monti announcing he'll step down before his term ends. the decision comes after the party of sylvia berlusconi withdrew support for monti's government last week. berlusconi has indicated he will run for leadership again. cnbc's carolin roth will join us from italy with the latest in a few minutes. when i was over there, i had to have the -- all the political signs translated because there's a picture of monti sitting under a beach chair drinking a drink and all the text was send monti to the beach. they
anyway, you would be hard pressed to find something who sdn have aen opinion on the fiscal cliff. this weekend, the ahead of the imf said the united states is more vulnerable to its domestic trouble more than anything else happening in the eurozone. christine lagarde says a balanced approach is needed and she says don't kick the can down the road, which is rich coming from a european. >>> european trading the lower this morning. italy's prime minister mario monti, yes, the same one...
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Dec 7, 2012
12/12
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couldn't the sandy weakness then be followed by fiscal cliff worry weakness. even if we don't go over the cliff. we could go above 8% and all of a sudden -- >> we could. and i'm expecting over 8% today or around 8% or more. and just to explain, there's a couple things going on. it's an earlier thanksgiving. so as i understand it, the bls moved survey week backwards to 11/5 from 111/12. that means it further back into the teeth of sandy's effects. all the peek out ople out of wo couldn't find work if they were looking for it. however the earlier thanksgiving also means retailers hire earlier. so you have these two forces. and zandi said there was two things, plus 86 from sandy, minus 60 or 70 because you have a seasonal effect of earlier retailers. on the jobs number. on the jobs number. so these offset? hiring for retail means a positive. less hiring for -- because of sandy is a negative. could they offset? >> there has to be some netting. there are special effects in the reports you're trying to sort out. and there's also the question of what the the economy
couldn't the sandy weakness then be followed by fiscal cliff worry weakness. even if we don't go over the cliff. we could go above 8% and all of a sudden -- >> we could. and i'm expecting over 8% today or around 8% or more. and just to explain, there's a couple things going on. it's an earlier thanksgiving. so as i understand it, the bls moved survey week backwards to 11/5 from 111/12. that means it further back into the teeth of sandy's effects. all the peek out ople out of wo couldn't...
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Dec 6, 2012
12/12
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the fiscal cliff hits. the arguments i just pa about the withholding tables and cutting spending, are not generally talked about. a lot of people deny they can be done. we're confident they can. so the question then becomes what's the impact, where is the impact. and the impact is equity markets end of next week will say these guys aren't going to get it done, we won't have a deal january 1, everything falls apart, that's assuming of course we all get past december 21st. >> so basically week and counting before you think the equity market really drops significantly? >> if we do get a deal done do, we just maintain the 2% that we're stuck in with the high unemployment and not go down? or does it actually allow us to start growing again? is anybody talking growth? >> we're talking growth. >> is it possible to ever get back to that in this environment? >> it is. you have a lot of problems with the piece. >> do you briyou believe if you rote deficit -- two different ways. you either keep the government that you
the fiscal cliff hits. the arguments i just pa about the withholding tables and cutting spending, are not generally talked about. a lot of people deny they can be done. we're confident they can. so the question then becomes what's the impact, where is the impact. and the impact is equity markets end of next week will say these guys aren't going to get it done, we won't have a deal january 1, everything falls apart, that's assuming of course we all get past december 21st. >> so basically...